The Planted Matching Problem: Phase Transitions and Exact Results

We study the problem of recovering a planted matching in randomly weighted complete bipartite graphs $K_{n,n}$. For some unknown perfect matching $M^*$, the weight of an edge is drawn from one distribution $P$ if $e \in M^*$ and another distribution $Q$ if $e \notin M^*$. Our goal is to infer $M^*$, exactly or approximately, from the edge weights. In this paper we take $P=\exp(λ)$ and $Q=\exp(1/n)$, in which case the maximum-likelihood estimator of $M^*$ is the minimum-weight matching $M_{\text{min}}$. We obtain precise results on the overlap between $M^*$ and $M_{\text{min}}$, i.e., the fraction of edges they have in common. For $λ\ge 4$ we have almost perfect recovery, with overlap $1-o(1)$ with high probability. For $λ< 4$ the expected overlap is an explicit function $α(λ) < 1$: we compute it by generalizing Aldous' celebrated proof of the $ζ(2)$ conjecture for the un-planted model, using local weak convergence to relate $K_{n,n}$ to a type of weighted infinite tree, and then deriving a system of differential equations from a message-passing algorithm on this tree.