DialToM: A Theory of Mind Benchmark for Forecasting State-Driven Dialogue Trajectories

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to possess Theory of Mind (ToM) abilities. However, it remains unclear whether this stems from robust reasoning or spurious correlations. We introduce DialToM, a human-verified benchmark built from natural human dialogue using a multiple-choice framework. We evaluate not only mental state prediction (Literal ToM) but also the functional utility of these states (Functional ToM) through Prospective Diagnostic Forecasting -- probing whether models can identify state-consistent dialogue trajectories solely from mental-state profiles. Our results reveal a significant reasoning asymmetry: while LLMs excel at identifying mental states, most (except for Gemini 3 Pro) fail to leverage this understanding to forecast social trajectories. Additionally, we find only weak semantic similarities between human and LLM-generated inferences. To facilitate reproducibility, the DialToM dataset and evaluation code are publicly available at https://github.com/Stealth-py/DialToM.