ADMFormer: An Adaptive-Decomposition Transformer with Time-Varying Masked Spatial Attention for Traffic Forecasting

Accurate traffic forecasting is essential for intelligent transportation systems, supporting a wide range of real-world applications. However, it remains challenging due to two key factors:~(1) Traffic series contain heterogeneous temporal patterns, where stable periodic regularities coexist with event-driven fluctuations. Existing methods often treat them within a unified representation, limiting their ability to capture fine-grained temporal dynamics.~(2)Spatial dependencies among nodes are inherently dynamic and sparse, while dense all-pairs attention often introduces redundant interactions and amplifies noise. To address these issues, we propose ADMFormer, an Adaptive-Decomposition Transformer with Time-Varying Masked Spatial Attention. Specifically, ADMFormer first employs a time-node adaptive gating mechanism to decouple traffic signals into dominant regularities and residual fluctuations that vary across time and nodes. A dual-branch temporal module is then designed to separately capture global periodic dependencies and high-frequency irregular variations from these two decomposed components. Furthermore, ADMFormer introduces a time-varying masked spatial attention that sparsifies spatial interactions based on real-time traffic states, thereby effectively preserving dynamic and informative dependencies. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that ADMFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance.